"Politics Is Good

A packed house listened Monday, September 9, to the political commentary of, as The Wall Street Journal called him, "probably the most quoted college professor in the land." Dr. Larry Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia and the director of the UVA Center for Politics, shared his insight and political expertise on the upcoming national elections to a diverse audience Monday evening Sept. 8 in the Thomas Recital Hall.

People ranging from young college students preparing for their first election to seasoned and aging participants in the political process came to hear why Dr. Sabato believes that "Politics is a Good Thing."

Dr. Sabato who recently returned from the Democratic and Republican Conventions prefaced his lecture with a confession of who he will vote President this coming November.

No, this political expert is not a die-hard Obama fan nor even a McCain supporter. As he has many times before, Dr. Sabato said that in November he will write in the name of a man he truly believes in: Thomas Jefferson.

"He can do no harm," Dr. Sabato remarked. However, Dr. Sabato is not stuck 200 years in the past believing that this long-gone American political hero will actually posthumously occupy the oval office, but rather this is Dr. Sabato's unique way of remaining truly non-partisan.

Dr. Sabato has written numerous books on the American political process and has a website he calls "Sabato's Crystal Ball." This play on words reflects the political analyst's realization that no amount of analysis can predict the outcome of politics and elections. There is no "crystal ball."

Dr. Sabato spent the next hour walking his audience through presidential candidates, their vice-presidential picks, the Congressional future, and even whose votes will really matter in the end.

According to Dr. Sabato, when a president is popular, his party's next candidate is easily elected. However, when the ratings dive, the next candidate has an uphill battle against the polls. A graph showing President Bush's historical approval ratings appeared to be heading straight for the ground. Without at least a 40 percent approval rating, the Republican candidate shouldn't win. "By this, McCain should give up right now," said Dr. Sabato.

However, Dr. Sabato quickly followed that assertion with concession that there can be special occasions. Could that special occasion be 2008?

Dr. Sabato answered the silent question by spelling out just what he believes the special circumstances need to be. From a quiet on the Iraq front to his distancing himself from President Bush, Dr. Sabato detailed the tightrope walk that the next months will be for McCain.

McCain currently holds usual Republican demographics. Seniors, whites, fundamentalist Christians, and those from rural areas are expected to cast their ballots in favor of the red candidate, while Barack Obama holds young voters, blacks, Hispanics, and upper income and education. This demographic analysis highlights the people from which each candidate is scrambling to gain support. White women, working classmen, Asians, and independents remain relatively split.

Dr. Sabato also touched on the candidates' running mates. Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin has entered this election with a splash, bringing excitement, fundamentalist Christians' support, and femininity to the McCain campaign. Meanwhile, Senator Joe Biden has graced Obama with the foreign experience his campaign lacked. Despite the numerous front pages these two are now making, come October they will fade from the spotlight. "In the end, we vote for presidents," Dr. Sabato said.

The 2008 Congressional race also made an appearance in Monday's lecture. The currently Democratic House will remain blue, according to Dr. Sabato, gaining anywhere from nine to 15 seats. The Senate too will keep its Democratic majority, but will most likely fall short of the 60 seats required to control the Senate. Dr. Sabato sees Democrats gaining four to six seats.

Dr. Sabato also addressed his fears of the growing national debt apologizing to the future generation for the state it is now in. With a lighthearted plug every now and then for his new book, "A More Perfect Constitution," the analyst offered other anecdotes, predictions, and analysis of current national politics.

The night's lecture was a part of Carson-Newman's Concert and Lecture Series, which offers current students and the community the opportunity to broaden their Liberal Arts education. The Concert and Lecture series offers an event each month, ranging from Dr. Sabato's political insight to the smooth sounds